Fuel prices at Ukrainian retail chains may increase by UAH 2–3 per liter over the course of the week amid the war in Iran; however, there is absolutely no fuel shortage on the market, nor is one expected in March, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting company.

"This is a dangerous story, because many consumers perceive price increases as a signal to immediately purchase fuel and build up reserves… So please, do not create panic. Everything is fine with us," he wrote late Monday evening on his Facebook page.

According to the expert, there are no objective preconditions for a potential fuel shortage on the Ukrainian market, and supply in March will only increase.

"It looks like we will be flooded with gasoline in March; there are also no signs of a shortage of diesel fuel. On the contrary, the disappearance of the cold-resistance factor has opened all the floodgates. No one even remembers the Hungarian-Slovak supplies anymore because the market is oversupplied," he said.

According to A-95, Ukraine's initial reaction to the war in Iran was a curtailment of wholesale trade starting March 2: on Monday, only three traders UPG, ZPEK, and Martin Trade were offering tanker-truck shipments, while most market participants refrained from trading altogether. Moreover, certain foreign suppliers reported that they were also taking a pause and would not provide additional volumes.

However, A-95 does not expect a significant price spike at retail chains amid the global market environment, given the sufficient supply of oil on the global market and the low likelihood of apocalyptic scenarios involving Iran blocking maritime straits.

"Personally, I expect low prices as soon as the 'Iranian' factor disappears. There is already plenty of oil in the world, and there will be even more, because production in Iran has in any case been constrained by years of sanctions. Accordingly, prices in Ukraine will also fall," Kuyun said.

Meanwhile, as shown by monitoring of official information resources of retail chains conducted on March 3 by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, fuel prices have already begun to rise. For example, over a 24-hour period, the price of A-95 gasoline and diesel fuel increased by UAH 2–3 per liter. It should be noted that many chains do not publish up-to-date prices on their websites and in their mobile applications.