The overall level of illicit tobacco trade in Ukraine at the beginning of 2026 stands at 17.6%, according to findings from the "Monitoring of Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products in Ukraine" project conducted by Kantar Ukraine on behalf of leading industry manufacturers.

According to the published data, nearly every sixth pack of cigarettes on the domestic market is illegal. Analysts estimate that with the shadow market amounting to around 5 billion cigarettes, annual state budget losses due to unpaid taxes reach UAH 28.1 billion.

"At the beginning of 2026, the share of counterfeit products with fake excise stamps decreased to 9.0%. At the same time, there has been an increase in the share of products labeled as Duty Free or intended for export, which has reached 7.7%," the Kantar study notes.

Researchers found that 37% of counterfeit products consist of cigarettes with fake excise stamps, the primary producer of which, based on packaging labels, is "Marshall Finest Tobacco" (United Tobacco)/VK Tobacco FZE. Among illicit products marked as Duty Free or intended for export, 57% are produced by the Vynnyky Tobacco Factory, as indicated on the packaging.

Geographically, 67% of the total volume of illicit tobacco products is concentrated in seven regions of Ukraine. Kirovohrad region has been added to the list of the most problematic regions this year.

The "Monitoring of Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products in Ukraine" project is carried out by Kantar Ukraine on an ongoing basis. The study is based on the collection and analysis of empty cigarette packs, as well as interviews with smokers to determine the supply channels and origin of illicit products on the domestic market, the company reported on its Telegram channel.