The Middle East conflict is directly affecting Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators: inflation could rise by 0.45 percentage points due to current oil product price increases, imports may increase by $1.5 billion to $3 billion, but projected GDP dynamics are not yet affected, National Bank of Ukraine Deputy Governor Volodymyr Lepushynsky said.

"In fact, we already have fuel price growth in March of 12.5%. Most likely, this figure will increase, possibly to 16%. And the direct contribution to annual inflation, if such prices hold, will be about 0.45% to annual inflation," he said at a briefing on the NBU board’s monetary policy decisions Thursday, an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent reports.

Lepushynsky added that secondary effects are likely, since fuel costs are directly embedded in the final cost of goods.

"And these effects could reach double the magnitude of that 0.45%," the NBU deputy governor noted.

He said that potentially continued tensions and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to higher inflation figures by year-end compared to what the central bank projected in its January macroeconomic forecast — 7.5% for 2026.

Lepushynsky also noted that the direct impact of Middle East events will be on the trade balance, since fuel, gas and, no less importantly, fertilizer are also rising in price on world markets, which will affect imports.

"If oil prices settle at $80-100 per barrel, the impact on increased imports will be in the range of $1.5 billion to $3 billion. But that’s if prices settle and remain until year-end," he said.

The official added that fertilizer import costs must also be considered, since the region directly supplies about one-third of global fertilizer production and, in particular, about half of such an important fertilizer as urea, so the impact on imports will be an additional $140 million per year.

"As for exports, there is no direct threat to Ukraine’s economy. Our main supplies, their logistics will not be affected, they are mainly carried out through the Black Sea or through our western border," Lepushynsky noted.

In his view, certain compensating factors are possible, such as rising prices for Ukrainian export goods, which are already being observed, particularly for grain and food products in general.

"There will be no significant direct impact on gross domestic product. Possible impact could come through secondary effects, particularly negative impact on the economies of our trading partners, especially EU countries," the NBU deputy governor also forecast.